Poor rainfall threatens crops and water supplies in India.
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Poor rainfall threatens crops and water supplies in India.
Private forecaster Skymet Weather has lowered its 2024 monsoon rainfall prediction, saying it now expects total rainfall to be 85% of the long-term average, down from an April forecast of 94%. The forecaster said there is a 70% probability of drought this season. Skymet attributed the worsening outlook to a strengthening El Nino weather pattern and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole, which disrupts normal rainfall patterns.
The official forecaster, the India Meteorological Department, predicted 92% of normal rainfall in April, then revised this to 90% in June. It attached a 60% probability to a deficient season, indicating a greater-than-even chance that total rainfall falls below the threshold for a 'below-normal' classification. IMD has not shared a revised forecast for the full season since June but said it issues regular updates and will provide another at the end of August.
Skymet warned that rainfall distribution will be uneven across India's regions in the remaining month of August. It predicted August will end with a shortfall of 16% below the long-period average. The forecaster said the rain deficit will worsen in September, with an expected shortfall of 20% of the long-term average.
As of August 17, all-India rainfall was 13% below the long-period average. The deficit has remained steady between 11% and 13% throughout August, despite a substantial recovery in July that reduced the overall deficit. At the end of June, the deficit was -40%; by July 31, it had improved to -13%. From June 1 to August 17, India received 518.7mm of rain, significantly below the normal 596.2mm for that period. The typical seasonal total is about 870mm. Forecasts from IMD show the monsoon is weakening in the second half of August, with its main trough shifting northward to the foothills.
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The forecast revision is forcing a fundamental re-examination of the season's agricultural and economic outlook. Skymet's 85% of LPA figure, which measures rainfall against the Long Period Average, becomes the new anchor point for all government planning and market assessments, a dynamic the engine measures as high exploration drive.
The outcome will be defined by the collaboration or conflict between farmers, state governments, and federal bodies. The interaction between these actors is intense, as forecasts require coordinated contingency planning while the media landscape is crowded with competing events, from diplomatic disputes to local festivals.
India faces the monsoon period amid existing environmental sensitivity, with recent incidents of fatal extreme weather creating a context of heightened volatility. This backdrop means official and public responses to the negative forecast could be amplified, either through quicker mobilization or faster-spreading alarm.
The most likely path reflects a system stress-tested by past deficits, pointing to a monsoon season of managed strain rather than collapse. However, the season remains crucially unresolved for the next several weeks, where rainfall data and the quality of government coordination will determine which of the three potential futures becomes reality.
A reader should watch for two things: first, official data on reservoir levels and spatial rainfall distribution in July, and second, the announcement—or lack—of specific, targeted relief packages by August. These are the observables that will confirm if the system is managing the strain or being overwhelmed by it.
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Skymet forecasts monsoon rainfall at 85% of average, predicts a 70% chance of drought, citing strong El Niño's impact on Indian agriculture.
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