Forecasts
80 branches · width is each branch’s share of the probability the engine assigned across them Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-30: India pursues calibrated, limited engagement with Iran? 50% σ 0 · by 30 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india pursues calibrated, limited engagement with iran — specifically: India maintains pragmatic relations with Iran within SCO framework while carefully managing Western relationships, focusing on narrow trade corridors and diplomatic consultations.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #3033 · f8bfb1c198d2 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-15: India cements strategic defiance against Western pressure? 40% σ 0 · by 15 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india cements strategic defiance against western pressure — specifically: PM Modi's meeting with Iranian President Pezeshkian represents a deliberate escalation of India's independent foreign policy, prioritizing strategic autonomy over Western sanctions compliance.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #3034 · 9108022a8340 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-10: Western pressure forces India to backpedal on Iran engagement? 10% σ 0 · by 10 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that western pressure forces india to backpedal on iran engagement — specifically: Escalating Western sanctions and diplomatic pressure following the SCO meeting compel India to limit or roll back trade expansion plans with Iran.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #3035 · f6f2e54dbe4a · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-15: India-Iran trade expands despite US sanctions pressure? 65% σ 0 · by 15 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran trade expands despite us sanctions pressure — specifically: India pursues deeper economic ties with Iran, particularly through the Chabahar Port and energy imports, navigating US sanctions pressure while prioritizing its strategic autonomy and regional interests.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #3036 · cd62312e2c97 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-10: Geopolitical tensions escalate, forcing India to choose sides? 30% σ 0 · by 10 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that geopolitical tensions escalate, forcing india to choose sides — specifically: Escalation in West Asia (Strait of Hormuz attacks) and tightening US sanctions pressure force India into a difficult balancing act, straining its 'multi-alignment' strategy and stalling substantive trade expansion with Iran.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #3037 · 88f8236c165a · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-05: SCO meeting yields only symbolic diplomacy, no substantive progress? 5% σ 0 · by 05 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-05 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that sco meeting yields only symbolic diplomacy, no substantive progress — specifically: The Modi-Pezeshkian meeting proves to be a routine diplomatic exchange on the SCO sidelines, with lofty statements on trade and peace but no follow-through or policy changes, as both leaders remain constrained by domestic and international pressures.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #3038 · dc78b1dc3952 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India Pursues SCO-Led Mediation Role? 50% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india pursues sco-led mediation role — specifically: India leverages its SCO platform to engage with Iran and position itself as a neutral mediator, pushing for dialogue-based resolution while cautiously expanding trade ties to avoid U.S. sanctions blowback.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5824 · 4071eefe859b · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Iran Remains Isolated; No Tangible Outcome? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that iran remains isolated; no tangible outcome — specifically: The SCO meeting yields only symbolic dialogue, failing to broker any meaningful de-escalation or trade expansion as Iran's position hardens and U.S. sanctions continue to deter substantive Indian engagement.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5825 · 0407928957b8 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-30: Conflict Escalation Undermines SCO Diplomacy? 15% σ 0 · by 30 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that conflict escalation undermines sco diplomacy — specifically: The West Asia conflict intensifies despite diplomatic talks, drawing regional powers into deeper involvement and forcing India to abandon its mediation role, potentially straining its relations with Iran.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5826 · 530900d573f4 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Diplomacy and Trade Enhanced? 50% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that diplomacy and trade enhanced — specifically: India successfully balances relations, acting as an intermediary in West Asia while expanding energy and economic ties with Iran, despite ongoing regional tensions.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5827 · 646991e77810 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-10: Ties Strained by Regional Crisis? 30% σ 0 · by 10 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that ties strained by regional crisis — specifically: A major escalation in West Asia forces India to choose sides, leading to fractured relations with Iran and a failure to expand trade as planned.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5828 · 9679fba8cf08 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Status Quo - Minimal Change? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that status quo - minimal change — specifically: The Modi-Pezeshkian meeting yields only symbolic statements; regional tensions and U.S. sanctions continue to constrain any substantive advancement in India-Iran relations.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5829 · 824d03cb7970 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-15: India-Iran Economic Partnership Strengthens? 55% σ 0 · by 15 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran economic partnership strengthens — specifically: India and Iran deepen their trade and currency cooperation through BRICS mechanisms, focusing on bypassing Western sanctions while maintaining discreet neutrality on West Asia conflicts.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7456 · 6dbea969deeb · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-30: India Emerges as Credible West Asia Mediator? 25% σ 0 · by 30 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india emerges as credible west asia mediator — specifically: India successfully leverages its SCO and BRICS platforms to facilitate dialogue between Iran and regional/gulf states, leading to reduced tensions and enhanced Indian diplomatic prestige.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7457 · 1891619730cf · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-11-15: US-India Tensions Over Iran Cooperation? 15% σ 0 · by 15 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that us-india tensions over iran cooperation — specifically: Expanded India-Iran economic cooperation triggers US secondary sanctions pressure, forcing India to choose between its strategic partnership with Washington and its energy/connectivity interests with Tehran.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7458 · a66119edbe46 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-11-30: Symbolic Engagement Without Substantive Breakthrough? 5% σ 0 · by 30 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that symbolic engagement without substantive breakthrough — specifically: India-Iran discussions remain mostly aspirational with limited concrete outcomes, constrained by US pressure, Iranian regional instability, and India's competing strategic priorities.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7459 · 8fbb11147df1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India-Iran strategic partnership deepens despite Western pressure? 55% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic partnership deepens despite western pressure — specifically: India and Iran solidify a multifaceted partnership, with significant expansion in trade (including bypassing sanctions via mechanisms like barter/rupee-rial), cooperation on West Asia diplomacy, and strategic connectivity (Chabahar). India balances ties with Western allies by maintaining this independent foreign policy corridor.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7460 · e501c5434901 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India-Iran engagement remains limited and symbolic? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran engagement remains limited and symbolic — specifically: High-level diplomatic meetings fail to translate into substantial, actionable agreements. India's strategic calculus prioritizes maintaining strong ties with the US and Gulf Arab partners, leading to cautious, incremental engagement with Iran that avoids major sanctions risks or policy shifts.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7461 · 5dd0b69b9cdb · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: West Asia conflict escalation forces India to distance from Iran? 10% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that west asia conflict escalation forces india to distance from iran — specifically: A major escalation in the West Asian war (e.g., direct Iran-Israel/US conflict, severe disruption to shipping) creates a binary choice. India, facing intense pressure from the US and fearing for its diaspora/energy security, publicly distances itself from Iran, freezing high-level engagement and shelving major projects.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7462 · 1011c3c3b15c · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-20: India pursues mediated de-escalation in West Asia? 45% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india pursues mediated de-escalation in west asia — specifically: India leverages its diplomatic relations with Iran and other regional powers to advocate for dialogue and de-escalation in West Asia, resulting in temporary stability but no permanent resolution.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7463 · dd705ee73feb · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India-Iran strategic partnership deepens, defying Western pressure? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic partnership deepens, defying western pressure — specifically: India and Iran significantly expand bilateral trade, particularly in energy and using national currencies, while strategically enhancing the Chabahar port and INSTC corridor.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7464 · e7e2b93bdb48 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Diplomatic engagement yields minimal tangible results? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that diplomatic engagement yields minimal tangible results — specifically: Despite high-level meetings, the fundamental conflict dynamics in West Asia and the practical hurdles to India-Iran trade expansion prevent any significant shift in outcomes.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7465 · 65b57aff8ed0 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-30: India expands trade with Iran while mediating West Asia? 50% σ 0 · by 30 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india expands trade with iran while mediating west asia — specifically: India successfully expands trade relations with Iran using national currencies and boosts connectivity, while serving as a diplomatic mediator in West Asian conflicts with support from BRICS and SCO partners.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7466 · 9f822560fd57 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-15: Limited progress amid sustained regional tensions? 35% σ 0 · by 15 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that limited progress amid sustained regional tensions — specifically: India-Iran relations see marginal trade improvements but fail to achieve major breakthroughs due to continued West Asian conflict and US pressure.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7467 · 17d642439e74 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-10: Indian diplomatic pivot fails, relations strained? 15% σ 0 · by 10 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that indian diplomatic pivot fails, relations strained — specifically: India's attempts to strengthen ties with Iran while balancing Western relations fail, leading to strained relations and reduced influence in West Asia.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7468 · 5eef54fa84c6 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Sanctions constrain Iran-India cooperation despite diplomatic efforts? 45% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that sanctions constrain iran-india cooperation despite diplomatic efforts — specifically: US and Western economic pressure prevents substantive trade expansion, limiting outcomes to symbolic diplomatic exchanges without material economic benefits.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7469 · d34005a976b1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India successfully mediates between Iran and regional actors? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india successfully mediates between iran and regional actors — specifically: India leverages its SCO and BRICS positions to facilitate structured diplomatic dialogue, de-escalating West Asia tensions while securing bilateral economic benefits.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7470 · cedb6d8d4d6b · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: West Asia conflict escalates despite diplomatic interventions? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that west asia conflict escalates despite diplomatic interventions — specifically: Ongoing hostilities expand beyond current borders, forcing India into defensive posture that severely impacts regional trade and energy security.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7471 · 1fcc842222f7 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India maintains essential Iran ties but avoids strategic alignment? 40% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india maintains essential iran ties but avoids strategic alignment — specifically: India pursues modest trade expansion with Iran focused on energy and Chabahar port, while keeping distance from Iran's geopolitical conflicts to maintain relations with the West and Israel.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7472 · 17c8cb3107f6 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India pulls back as Iran-West Asia conflicts escalate? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india pulls back as iran-west asia conflicts escalate — specifically: Escalating West Asia conflicts and U.S. pressure force India to significantly reduce engagement with Iran to protect relationships with Arab states, Israel, and Western partners.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7473 · e26872b7b112 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India-Iran strategic partnership challenges Western dominance? 25% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic partnership challenges western dominance — specifically: India aligns more closely with Iran as part of BRICS-led challenge to Western order, pursuing deeper energy, trade and security cooperation amid shared frustrations with U.S.-led sanctions architecture.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7474 · 9ea984461ba3 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India-Iran Strategic Alignment with Deepened Economic Ties? 40% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic alignment with deepened economic ties — specifically: India successfully leverages its SCO/BRI position to broker expanded trade agreements with Iran, securing energy imports and transit routes while gaining diplomatic credibility as a neutral mediator in West Asia conflicts.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7475 · 8c9319e7f16d · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Diplomatic Stalemate with Limited Progress? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that diplomatic stalemate with limited progress — specifically: High-level talks produce symbolic gestures but fail to achieve substantive progress on West Asia conflict resolution or significant trade expansion due to fundamental geopolitical constraints and US pressure.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7476 · 08c7653e92d1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Geopolitical Backlash and US Pressure? 25% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that geopolitical backlash and us pressure — specifically: India's overt alignment with Iran triggers significant US/Western backlash, leading to secondary sanctions threats and damaged relations with Gulf allies, forcing India to backtrack on agreements.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7477 · 37ddfbef7a60 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-28: India-Iran Strategic Partnership Deepens Through BRICS and SCO? 50% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic partnership deepens through brics and sco — specifically: India successfully expands economic and strategic cooperation with Iran through BRICS mechanisms, securing energy supplies and trade routes while maintaining diplomatic neutrality in West Asia.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7478 · b088638bfb6b · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-28: Diplomatic Stalemate as Sanctions and Geopolitical Pressures Constrain Cooperation? 30% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that diplomatic stalemate as sanctions and geopolitical pressures constrain cooperation — specifically: Despite diplomatic engagements, US sanctions and West Asia conflict pressures prevent substantive advancement of India-Iran economic ties, limiting outcomes to symbolic gestures.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7479 · 5f459258f17d · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-28: West Asia Conflict Escalation Forces India to Choose Strategic Partners? 20% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that west asia conflict escalation forces india to choose strategic partners — specifically: Rapid escalation of West Asia conflict forces India to make difficult choices between Iran and Gulf partners, damaging relations with one side while strengthening with the other.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7480 · 45bffe6159fb · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India pursues limited bilateral coordination with Iran amid tensions? 55% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india pursues limited bilateral coordination with iran amid tensions — specifically: India agrees to modest trade expansion with Iran in national currencies and maintains diplomatic dialogue on West Asia, while carefully balancing relations with Western partners.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8364 · 12234135e8cf · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India deepens strategic partnership with Iran within BRICS framework? 30% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india deepens strategic partnership with iran within brics framework — specifically: India significantly expands trade and strategic coordination with Iran, leveraging BRICS mechanisms to create alternative financial channels and challenge Western sanctions architecture.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8365 · 6546e1fa3257 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India-Iran relations stagnate amid continued West Asia escalation? 15% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran relations stagnate amid continued west asia escalation — specifically: Persistent conflict in West Asia and U.S. pressure limit meaningful progress in India-Iran relations, with meetings producing rhetoric but little substantive advancement.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8366 · 09dba1c011c7 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-25: India-Iran Strategic Alliance Deepens? 40% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic alliance deepens — specifically: India deepens its strategic partnership with Iran as a counterbalance to Western influence, resulting in increased bilateral trade, energy cooperation, and diplomatic coordination on West Asian security.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8717 · 819166b6763e · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-30: Limited Cooperation Amid Geopolitical Constraints? 40% σ 0 · by 30 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that limited cooperation amid geopolitical constraints — specifically: Geopolitical tensions and India's strategic balancing act with the US and Arab partners constrain India-Iran cooperation to symbolic diplomacy and limited economic exchanges.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8718 · 137938d8a52f · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Diplomatic Breakdown and Regional Escalation? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that diplomatic breakdown and regional escalation — specifically: Escalating West Asian conflict and US pressure forces India to distance from Iran, resulting in diplomatic friction and reduced cooperation as India prioritizes relations with Arab partners and the West.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8719 · 3dea0dd247b6 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-20: Enhanced India-Iran Strategic & Economic Cooperation? 55% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that enhanced india-iran strategic & economic cooperation — specifically: The SCO meeting catalyzes a significant expansion of bilateral ties, focusing on trade in national currencies, Chabahar port development, and coordinated diplomatic efforts on West Asia.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8720 · b4dc4e0e4e6b · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-25: Limited, Marginal Progress Amid Constraints? 35% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that limited, marginal progress amid constraints — specifically: High-level talks yield rhetorical warmth and minor memoranda, but U.S. sanctions pressure and regional instability prevent substantive breakthroughs.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8721 · f99a85555a3f · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-20: Diplomatic Blowback & Isolation Risk? 10% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that diplomatic blowback & isolation risk — specifically: Perceptions of India moving too close to Iran trigger punitive U.S. responses, chilling other strategic partnerships and isolating India on the West Asia issue.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8722 · 4903155cffd6 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-30: Limited diplomatic and economic cooperation within constraints? 60% σ 0 · by 30 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that limited diplomatic and economic cooperation within constraints — specifically: India pursues cautious engagement with Iran focused on trade and regional stability, balancing between its strategic autonomy, Western relations, and immediate economic opportunities, but avoids deep strategic realignment.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8723 · 9c786bd467d9 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Strategic alignment within BRICS/de-dollarization framework? 25% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that strategic alignment within brics/de-dollarization framework — specifically: India and Iran deepen cooperation within the BRICS framework, particularly on de-dollarization and creating alternative financial systems, as both seek to reduce Western influence and build a multipolar order.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8724 · 7406567f0b97 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Relations deteriorate under Western pressure or regional escalation? 15% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that relations deteriorate under western pressure or regional escalation — specifically: Escalating West Asia conflict or intense US pressure forces India to publicly distance itself from Iran, significantly curtailing cooperation to protect its broader strategic interests with the US and Gulf states.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8725 · 36c63b6cd01b · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India pursues indirect mediation and reinforced trade while avoiding confrontation? 60% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india pursues indirect mediation and reinforced trade while avoiding confrontation — specifically: India uses SCO/BRICS platforms to advocate dialogue and expands bilateral trade/non-dollar transactions with Iran, but avoids direct mediation or antagonizing the US. A low-risk, diplomatic posture persists.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8726 · 64bdb8940307 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India leverages Chabahar and regional stature for more assertive, but risky, mediation? 30% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india leverages chabahar and regional stature for more assertive, but risky, mediation — specifically: India uses its unique position (Chabahar port, ties with Iran, Russia, and Gulf states) to broker limited de-escalation or humanitarian pauses. Higher risk of US displeasure, but potential for regional prestige gains.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8727 · dc4a973dfc39 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: West Asia conflict escalates sharply, forcing India into a defensive regression? 10% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that west asia conflict escalates sharply, forcing india into a defensive regression — specifically: Major regional escalation (e.g., direct Iran-Israel/US conflict) disrupts trade, jeopardizes Chabahar, and forces India into uncomfortable neutrality or pro-Western alignment, straining ties with Iran.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8728 · 972fd93b917e · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Stalemate with Limited Progress? 45% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that stalemate with limited progress — specifically: Tensions persist in West Asia despite diplomatic efforts, but India-Iran economic cooperation expands modestly within BRICS frameworks.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8729 · 183cc1c0bcfc · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-15: De-Escalation and Expanded Partnership? 40% σ 0 · by 15 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that de-escalation and expanded partnership — specifically: India successfully leverages its diplomatic channels with Iran to reduce tensions in West Asia, leading to increased bilateral trade and energy cooperation.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8730 · 24669ad62a75 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-10: Escalation and Diplomatic Isolation? 15% σ 0 · by 10 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that escalation and diplomatic isolation — specifically: West Asia conflict intensifies, drawing India into difficult position between Iran and Western allies, leading to strained relations and economic setbacks.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8731 · 382fe783467d · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-15: Enhanced India-Iran Trade Relations with Mediation Role? 55% σ 0 · by 15 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that enhanced india-iran trade relations with mediation role — specifically: India successfully expands trade relations with Iran through SCO/BRICS channels while maintaining a neutral mediation position in West Asia conflicts, resulting in economic gains and strengthened diplomatic standing.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8732 · 86607b935fc0 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Stalled Diplomacy with Continued Sanctions Pressure? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that stalled diplomacy with continued sanctions pressure — specifically: Geopolitical tensions prevent meaningful progress, with US sanctions pressure limiting India-Iran cooperation expansion and West Asia conflicts escalating despite diplomatic efforts.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8733 · ee8008002b8c · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-10: Strategic Realignment Leading to Regional Tensions? 10% σ 0 · by 10 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that strategic realignment leading to regional tensions — specifically: India's deeper alignment with Iran through SCO/BRICS triggers diplomatic tensions with Western partners and Gulf states, while failing to stabilize West Asia conflicts.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8734 · 5a2a57bab0c0 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India emerges as key mediator in West Asia? 40% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india emerges as key mediator in west asia — specifically: India leverages its unique relationships with Iran, Israel, and Gulf states to broker de-escalation talks, gaining significant diplomatic capital and trade benefits in the region.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8735 · c56b2c84595a · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Economic pragmatism dominates? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that economic pragmatism dominates — specifically: Geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, but India-Iran relations focus on practical trade expansion, especially in energy and Chabahar port development, bypassing diplomatic deadlocks.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8736 · e39cf37df1e3 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Regional escalation isolates India? 25% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that regional escalation isolates india — specifically: West Asia war escalates dramatically, forcing India to choose sides and straining its relations with either Iran or the US/Gulf partners, damaging its strategic autonomy and economic interests.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8737 · 36318a11a8a7 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-15: India-Iran strategic alignment with transactional cooperation? 45% σ 0 · by 15 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic alignment with transactional cooperation — specifically: India and Iran establish pragmatic bilateral cooperation focused on trade expansion through national currencies and energy connectivity, while India maintains diplomatic balance between Iran and Western partners.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8738 · b9f93165ad4b · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Limited cooperation stalled by West Asia tensions and US pressure? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that limited cooperation stalled by west asia tensions and us pressure — specifically: Escalating West Asia tensions and US sanctions pressure constrain India-Iran cooperation to minimal levels, with trade expansion failing to materialize beyond symbolic gestures.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8739 · c77801f38210 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-11-01: Cooperation subsumed within broader multilateral BRICS framework? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that cooperation subsumed within broader multilateral brics framework — specifically: India-Iran bilateral cooperation becomes subsumed within broader BRICS multilateral initiatives, with India using the platform to engage Iran indirectly while maintaining plausible deniability with Western partners.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8740 · 64eb50f480c1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-20: India-Iran Strategic Partnership Deepens? 45% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic partnership deepens — specifically: India successfully leverages the SCO meeting to expand trade and diplomatic ties with Iran, positioning itself as a mediator in West Asia while advancing rupee trade and energy security.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8741 · e5d59df8fe93 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-25: Limited Progress Amid Regional Tensions? 35% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that limited progress amid regional tensions — specifically: Despite diplomatic overtures, escalating West Asia conflicts and U.S. pressure constrain substantial India-Iran cooperation, resulting in modest trade gains but no strategic breakthrough.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8742 · 55cb6930d4dd · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-20: West Asia Escalation Derails Dialogue? 20% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that west asia escalation derails dialogue — specifically: Major escalation in West Asia conflicts forces India to recalibrate Iran engagement, prioritizing relationships with Arab Gulf states and limiting cooperation to minimal diplomatic channels.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8743 · 23868cd9400c · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Limited deepening with neutral balancing? 55% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that limited deepening with neutral balancing — specifically: India secures modest trade and energy deals with Iran while maintaining a neutral diplomatic stance on West Asia conflicts, balancing relations with the US and its West Asian partners.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8744 · 6755dc1d6be1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Significant BRICS realignment and trade expansion? 30% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that significant brics realignment and trade expansion — specifically: India and Iran lead BRICS efforts to create alternative financial systems and expand de-dollarized trade, significantly deepening economic ties while maintaining diplomatic caution on security matters.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8745 · 13419a09222a · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: Direct Indian mediation in West Asia conflicts? 15% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that direct indian mediation in west asia conflicts — specifically: India assumes an active mediation role between Iran and regional adversaries, leveraging its neutral relationships to facilitate de-escalation while expanding strategic access and influence.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8746 · b9c20e41bbe8 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-29: Cautious Balancing Act Maintained? 50% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that cautious balancing act maintained — specifically: India maintains a cautious middle path - engaging with Iran diplomatically while avoiding substantive commitments that could jeopardize relations with the U.S. and Gulf partners.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8956 · b39ee0f24c08 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-29: India-Iran Strategic Partnership Strengthens? 40% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic partnership strengthens — specifically: India deepens strategic and economic ties with Iran, leveraging SCO/BRICS platforms to expand trade in national currencies, pursue energy cooperation, and position itself as a mediator in West Asia conflicts.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8957 · 61e84d7c5d4f · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-29: India-Iran Relations Cool Under Western Pressure? 10% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran relations cool under western pressure — specifically: Under sustained U.S. pressure and concerns about regional stability, India significantly scales back engagement with Iran, prioritizing relations with Gulf partners and the West.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8958 · 06e5bc60fb29 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-30: India as Regional Mediator? 40% σ 0 · by 30 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india as regional mediator — specifically: India successfully leverages its strategic position and SCO platform to broker diplomatic dialogue between Iran and Gulf/Western actors, de-escalating tensions and securing its regional interests.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8959 · 7031b6f8ed8b · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-20: Pragmatic Bilateral Focus? 35% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that pragmatic bilateral focus — specifically: Discussions remain focused on expanding bilateral India-Iran trade and energy links, with minimal progress on resolving the broader West Asia conflict.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8960 · a3219f75ee12 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-09-25: Assertive Anti-West Axis? 25% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that assertive anti-west axis — specifically: India-Iran cooperation evolves into a more assertive anti-Western alignment within BRICS/SCO, with India adopting harder rhetoric on sanctions and taking concrete steps to undermine US-led financial architecture.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8961 · a04eae90c50e · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India-Iran Strategic Trade Partnership? 45% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india-iran strategic trade partnership — specifically: India and Iran solidify energy security and economic cooperation through expanded trade in national currencies and Chabahar port development, with India maintaining neutrality in West Asia conflicts.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8962 · fad3bc6c4b16 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: India as West Asia Mediator? 25% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that india as west asia mediator — specifically: India leverages its relationships with Iran, Israel, and Gulf states to facilitate diplomatic dialogue, reducing tensions and establishing itself as a credible neutral mediator.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8963 · f9906ed776d1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-10-01: West Asia Conflict Disrupts Indian Interests? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that west asia conflict disrupts indian interests — specifically: Escalating West Asia conflict forces India into difficult balancing act, damaging economic ties with Iran while straining relations with Gulf partners, with no clear diplomatic win.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8964 · 13dffa3c654d · open
Will the following occur in the 'PM Modi meets Iran's Pezeshkian at SCO; discusses West Asia war, trade expansion' narrative by 2026-11-01: BRICS Economic Bloc Strengthens Against Western Sanctions? 10% σ 0 · by 01 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that brics economic bloc strengthens against western sanctions — specifically: India-Iran cooperation becomes catalyst for broader BRICS economic integration as anti-sanctions coalition, with New Development Bank expanding to counter Western financial dominance.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8965 · b17387b2b8ec · open