Forecasts
29 branches · width is each branch’s share of the probability the engine assigned across them Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-08-14: MSG hold top three but fall short in knockouts? 40% σ 0 · by 14 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-14 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that msg hold top three but fall short in knockouts — specifically: MSG do enough to finish in the top three, but their over-reliance on Walter, Seifert and Atkinson and visible running/fielding fragility are punished in knockout cricket.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #260 · 6fddccf7642b · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-08-14: Manchester Super Giants consolidate top-three and launch title run? 30% σ 0 · by 14 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-14 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants consolidate top-three and launch title run — specifically: Walter, Seifert and Atkinson’s match-winning performances create momentum that carries MSG through the final stretch and into a deep knockout run, culminating in a title challenge.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #261 · 2daba82e27a7 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-08-14: MSG slip outside top three? 30% σ 0 · by 14 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-14 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that msg slip outside top three — specifically: The gap to fourth is smaller than the headline suggests, and MSG’s base-running errors plus competitors’ form combine to knock them out of the top three despite the Southampton win.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #262 · ba9df8a07a57 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Manchester Super Giants consolidate top three position? 45% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants consolidate top three position — specifically: Manchester Super Giants maintain their top-three position for the remainder of the season, leveraging the momentum from their key victory.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6949 · 27f2b326b800 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Manchester Super Giants slip from top three position? 35% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants slip from top three position — specifically: Manchester Super Giants fail to maintain their top-three standing, losing momentum and dropping in the rankings.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6950 · 9a2905c732bc · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Ongoing volatility around third position? 20% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that ongoing volatility around third position — specifically: Manchester Super Giants experience back-and-forth movement around the third position, with multiple teams competing for the spot.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6951 · fc912d6b9af9 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Super Giants consolidate top three position? 60% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that super giants consolidate top three position — specifically: Manchester Super Giants maintain their current form and secure their place in the top three for the remainder of the season.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6952 · dea826e1396b · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Super Giants slip from top three? 40% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that super giants slip from top three — specifically: Manchester Super Giants lose form and are overtaken by other teams, dropping out of the top three positions.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6953 · 6efa749da986 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-21: Manchester Super Giants Maintain Top-Three Position? 70% σ 0 · by 21 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-21 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants maintain top-three position — specifically: Guided by contributions from Walter, Seifert, and Atkinson, the Manchester Super Giants consolidate their top-three league standing, closing the season strongly. This is supported by their recent victory, which eliminated Southern Brave from contention.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6954 · e3e1f00540ab · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-21: Manchester Super Giants Drop Out of Top Three? 30% σ 0 · by 21 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-21 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants drop out of top three — specifically: Despite their recent lift, inconsistent performances or strong challenges from other teams see the Manchester Super Giants fall out of the top three by season's end.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6955 · e1350a2f3be4 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Manchester Super Giants Secure Top Three Finish? 70% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants secure top three finish — specifically: Manchester Super Giants maintain their top three position in the standings, qualifying for the playoffs while Southern Brave ends their season.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6956 · f684dff19eec · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Manchester Super Giants Drop From Top Three? 30% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants drop from top three — specifically: Manchester Super Giants fail to maintain their position and drop out of the top three before season end, missing playoff qualification.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6957 · 27882c963bc2 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Giants consolidate top-three position? 60% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that giants consolidate top-three position — specifically: Manchester Super Giants maintain momentum and secure a top-three finish in the league standings, building on recent key performances.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6958 · a231a75f7f4b · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Giants lose form and drop from top three? 40% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that giants lose form and drop from top three — specifically: Manchester Super Giants experience a dip in form, with key players failing to maintain performance, causing them to fall out of top-three contention.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6959 · 0856650434f3 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Manchester Super Giants secure top-three finish? 60% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants secure top-three finish — specifically: Based on recent match performance against Southern Brave, Manchester Super Giants maintain momentum and solidify their position in the top three of the tournament standings.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7941 · 3ecb1a88a1a9 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Late-season form collapse leads to drop? 30% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that late-season form collapse leads to drop — specifically: Despite recent success, Manchester Super Giants experience a late-season decline in form and drop out of the top three positions.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7942 · 3cf0327fccfe · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-28: Key player injuries disrupt campaign? 10% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that key player injuries disrupt campaign — specifically: Injuries to crucial players like Walter, Seifert or Atkinson derail the team's momentum and prevent a top-three finish.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7943 · 4ae3e5400dd7 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-29: Super Giants consolidate top three position? 70% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that super giants consolidate top three position — specifically: The Manchester Super Giants maintain their momentum following the key contributions from Walter, Seifert, and Atkinson, solidifying their playoff position while Southern Brave are eliminated.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8497 · 5974b70f620e · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-29: Super Giants fade and drop from top three? 30% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that super giants fade and drop from top three — specifically: The victory proves to be a temporary boost as the Super Giants fail to maintain form, dropping out of the top three while other teams capitalize on their inconsistency.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8498 · a0a7746a2f95 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-29: Manchester Super Giants maintain top three position? 65% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants maintain top three position — specifically: The Manchester Super Giants build on their current momentum and maintain their top-three position through strong performances, securing a favorable playoff seeding.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9007 · 8b3a3cc2269a · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-29: Manchester Super Giants slip from top three? 35% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants slip from top three — specifically: Inconsistent performances or key player failures cause Manchester Super Giants to lose their top-three position before the end of the season.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9008 · 9fb49f5a99de · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-29: Manchester Super Giants consolidate top-three position? 40% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants consolidate top-three position — specifically: Manchester Super Giants use their current momentum to maintain or improve their top-three standing through consistent performances, leveraging key players like Walter, Seifert, and Atkinson.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9009 · 203d90713b6b · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-29: Manchester Super Giants drop out of top three? 35% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants drop out of top three — specifically: Manchester Super Giants fail to capitalize on their current position, with inconsistent performances or injuries causing them to slide down the standings.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9010 · 1fa2c58552f6 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-29: Manchester Super Giants challenge for championship? 25% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants challenge for championship — specifically: Manchester Super Giants use their top-three position as a springboard to challenge for the tournament title, with key players maintaining peak form through playoffs.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9011 · 3b15b28cafe8 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-29: Giants maintain form and finish firmly in top three? 60% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that giants maintain form and finish firmly in top three — specifically: Manchester Super Giants capitalize on recent wins and secure a top-three finish, benefiting from the key performances of Walter, Seifert, and Atkinson and Southern Brave's elimination.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9012 · 51e47f82bba7 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-09-29: Giants lose momentum and drop out of top three? 40% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that giants lose momentum and drop out of top three — specifically: Manchester Super Giants fail to sustain their recent form, lose key subsequent matches, and finish outside the top three, despite their current position.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9013 · 43e81d20b725 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-10-17: Manchester Super Giants consolidate top-three position? 60% σ 0 · by 17 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-17 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants consolidate top-three position — specifically: Manchester Super Giants maintain their momentum and secure a top-three finish in the league standings, building on the performances of Walter, Seifert, and Atkinson.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #12083 · 964d53e5805c · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-10-17: Manchester Super Giants slip to mid-table? 25% σ 0 · by 17 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-17 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants slip to mid-table — specifically: The team's form declines, possibly due to injuries, loss of form from key players, or tactical weaknesses being exposed by opponents.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #12084 · 47b8d6ffb5ff · open
Will the following occur in the 'Walter, Seifert, Atkinson lift Manchester Super Giants into top three' narrative by 2026-10-17: Manchester Super Giants challenge for championship? 15% σ 0 · by 17 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-17 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that manchester super giants challenge for championship — specifically: The team builds on current momentum and challenges for the league championship, exceeding expectations.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #12085 · 43adcaf28107 · open