Forecasts
41 branches · width is each branch’s share of the probability the engine assigned across them Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-08-28: Scenario synthesis unavailable? 100% σ 0 · by 28 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that scenario synthesis unavailable — specifically: The scenario stage could not produce structured output (provider returned empty or unparseable response). No fabricated scenarios are shown. The engine's narrative answer below still reflects the full force analysis.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #704 · 692080a6647b · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-11: Continued Brand Relevance Struggle? 45% σ 0 · by 11 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-11 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that continued brand relevance struggle — specifically: McDonald's value strategy fails to resonate in an evolving fast-food landscape where consumers prioritize quality perceptions over price alone, leading to sustained sales deceleration.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #2894 · 8145e0d5e56a · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-11: Successful Culinary & Experiential Pivot? 35% σ 0 · by 11 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-11 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that successful culinary & experiential pivot — specifically: McDonald's leverages its scale and data to successfully pivot its U.S. strategy beyond price, introducing limited-time culinary collaborations, digital experience upgrades, and store refreshes that reignite traffic.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #2895 · cad8138d9bf0 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-11: Structural Market Share Erosion? 20% σ 0 · by 11 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-11 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that structural market share erosion — specifically: The U.S. fast-food market undergoes a structural shift where McDonald's faces irreversible share loss to faster-growing chains, delivery-only brands, and grocery/home meal solutions, capping its growth potential.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #2896 · d5ce63e8442b · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-22: Continued Value Strategy Failure? 60% σ 0 · by 22 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-22 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that continued value strategy failure — specifically: McDonald's existing value deals remain insufficient to attract cost-conscious customers, leading to sustained sales growth slowdown in its largest market with no near-term recovery.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4671 · 38e33723c4fc · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-22: Menu Innovation & Premiumization Success? 30% σ 0 · by 22 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-22 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that menu innovation & premiumization success — specifically: McDonald's pivots from pure value deals to successful menu innovation and premium offerings that drive traffic while maintaining margins, offsetting value segment weakness.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4672 · 675d1e8530cd · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-22: Market Share Loss to Agile Competitors? 10% σ 0 · by 22 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-22 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that market share loss to agile competitors — specifically: McDonald's experiences structural market share erosion as competitors with better value propositions, digital capabilities, or healthier options capture its core customer base.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4673 · d71f0fc17d6e · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-25: Missed Value Message? 35% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that missed value message — specifically: McDonald's reevaluates and successfully redesigns its value proposition with more compelling deals and marketing, reigniting growth among cost-conscious diners.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5025 · 5e03654c1c6f · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-25: Irreversible Market Shift? 25% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that irreversible market shift — specifically: The slowdown signals a permanent reduction in McDonald's relevance in the U.S. market, as changing consumer preferences and competitive pressure overwhelm price adjustments.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5026 · b5c15089f5c5 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-25: Pivot Beyond Price? 20% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that pivot beyond price — specifically: McDonald's successfully shifts the competitive axis from pure price to digital convenience, menu innovation, and experience, stabilizing and then growing sales.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5027 · accf5bb2ce58 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-25: Economic Tailwind? 20% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that economic tailwind — specifically: Broader economic improvement increases consumer disposable income and dining-out frequency, lifting McDonald's sales despite a mediocre value proposition.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #5028 · a28631d68c9f · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-28: Continued Stagnation in US Market? 45% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that continued stagnation in us market — specifically: McDonald's continues to struggle with value-driven competition and changing consumer preferences, leading to sustained low growth in its US operations despite marketing efforts.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6699 · c90adcdb7cd9 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-28: Successful Strategic Turnaround? 35% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that successful strategic turnaround — specifically: McDonald's successfully leverages its scale and operational excellence to implement a menu and marketing revival that restores US growth momentum.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6700 · 24c32957fad3 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-28: Accelerated Decline in US Relevance? 20% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that accelerated decline in us relevance — specifically: McDonald's loses further ground to competitors as its fundamental value proposition deteriorates, leading to sustained negative comparable sales and shrinking market share.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6701 · 3df4274cd6a9 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-28: McDonald's Fails to Reverse Slump, US Market Stagnation Deepens? 60% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that mcdonald's fails to reverse slump, us market stagnation deepens — specifically: McDonald's value-focused strategy proves insufficient to counteract changing consumer behavior and competitive pressures, leading to sustained sales deceleration in its largest market.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6896 · 77a5c94ce53c · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-28: Successful Strategy Pivot Restores Growth Trajectory? 35% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that successful strategy pivot restores growth trajectory — specifically: McDonald's successfully adapts its value proposition beyond price competition, implementing menu innovation and operational improvements that regain customer loyalty and drive sustainable growth.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6897 · adf4a2ca8b25 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-28: McDonald's Faces Structural Market Disruption and Permanent Decline? 5% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that mcdonald's faces structural market disruption and permanent decline — specifically: Fundamental changes in food consumption patterns and new competitive threats permanently reduce McDonald's market position, making recovery to previous growth rates impossible.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6898 · a7e761b80e6f · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-28: Limited Value War Escalation with Modest Recovery? 60% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that limited value war escalation with modest recovery — specifically: McDonald's moderately enhances its value offerings, winning back some price-sensitive customers while maintaining margins, leading to stabilized but slow growth.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6899 · d803a15e3cff · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-28: Aggressive Value Push at the Cost of Margins? 25% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that aggressive value push at the cost of margins — specifically: To reverse sales trends, McDonald's launches deeply discounted promotions, successfully drawing diners back but significantly compressing U.S. restaurant-level margins.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6900 · 0049c8d1550e · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-28: Value Strategy Fails, Pivot to Premium/Niche? 15% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that value strategy fails, pivot to premium/niche — specifically: Value deals continue to underperform as the core customer base is lost to other fast-food chains and grocers. McDonald's strategically de-emphasizes value, shifting marketing toward quality, convenience, and limited-time premium offerings.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6901 · 8a37fd17ef75 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-12-01: Persistent US Market Stagnation? 50% σ 0 · by 01 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that persistent us market stagnation — specifically: McDonald's fails to reverse the slowdown in US sales growth despite value deals, as cost-conscious customers continue to seek cheaper alternatives or reduce dining out frequency.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8797 · 141888451215 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-10-01: Accelerated Decline in US Market? 30% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that accelerated decline in us market — specifically: The US sales slowdown accelerates into a decline as McDonald's loses significant ground to more nimble competitors and changing consumer preferences.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8798 · eada43600c12 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-11-01: Successful Recovery and Turnaround? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that successful recovery and turnaround — specifically: McDonald's revamps its value strategy and successfully attracts cost-conscious customers, returning to historical US growth rates.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8799 · 0420d4246f0a · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Value Strategy Fails to Regain Market Share? 60% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that value strategy fails to regain market share — specifically: McDonald's continues to struggle with value deals that don't resonate with cost-conscious customers, leading to prolonged sales stagnation and competitive losses in the US market.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8917 · 0a69fc72995e · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Menu Innovation Successfully Revives Growth? 30% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that menu innovation successfully revives growth — specifically: McDonald's successfully reinvents its menu offerings with innovative products that attract both value-oriented and premium customers, breaking the current growth stagnation.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8918 · b0400d579ef9 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Structural Changes and Franchise Model Overhaul? 10% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that structural changes and franchise model overhaul — specifically: McDonald's undertakes significant structural reorganization of its US operations, including franchise model reforms and store format changes that address fundamental business model challenges.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8919 · 82cb8c9b0644 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: McDonald's Value Strategy Regains Traction? 40% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that mcdonald's value strategy regains traction — specifically: McDonald's successfully revamps its value offerings or marketing approach, attracting cost-conscious diners back to its restaurants and restoring US sales growth.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8920 · 0578f60b253c · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Persistent Sales Slowdown Despite Adjustments? 40% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that persistent sales slowdown despite adjustments — specifically: McDonald's struggles to reverse the sales slowdown as consumer preferences shift away from fast food or toward different value propositions that McDonald's cannot effectively match.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8921 · b67d40e6a415 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Structural Decline Emerges in US Market? 20% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that structural decline emerges in us market — specifically: The sales slowdown proves to be symptomatic of deeper structural issues facing McDonald's US business, leading to sustained underperformance and potential market share loss.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8922 · d402049729d3 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Value Strategy Proves Inadequate? 50% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that value strategy proves inadequate — specifically: McDonald's continues to rely on value deals which fail to reverse the sales slowdown, as customers remain unresponsive and competition intensifies.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9242 · 80e9eba427f3 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Menu Innovation Revitalizes Growth? 30% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that menu innovation revitalizes growth — specifically: McDonald's pivots from pure value deals to successful menu innovation that attracts customers willing to pay for quality and novelty.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9243 · 05b956cbb204 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Digital Experience and Convenience Win? 20% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that digital experience and convenience win — specifically: McDonald's doubles down on digital ordering, delivery, and app integration, attracting customers through convenience rather than just price.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9244 · 5b01bf9e2965 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2028-03-08: Current Strategy Fails, Market Share Declines? 45% σ 0 · by 08 Mar 2028 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2028-03-08 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that current strategy fails, market share declines — specifically: McDonald's value deals and existing marketing fail to reverse the trend, leading to continued or accelerated sales decline as competitors capture more market share.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9278 · 54f3d0753677 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2027-06-12: Successful Strategy Recalibration Leads to Slow Recovery? 35% σ 0 · by 12 Jun 2027 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2027-06-12 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that successful strategy recalibration leads to slow recovery — specifically: McDonald's successfully identifies and implements a new value proposition or menu/operational innovation that resonates, leading to gradual sales recovery and market share stabilization.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9279 · 7f1ef4192c79 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2027-09-10: External Economic or Competitive Shock Resets Environment? 20% σ 0 · by 10 Sep 2027 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2027-09-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that external economic or competitive shock resets environment — specifically: A macroeconomic shift (recession, food deflation) or a competitive misstep by a major rival dramatically changes the value equation, allowing McDonald's to regain footing unexpectedly.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9280 · 6138788c1146 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Failed Value Strategy Leads to Moderate Contraction? 40% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that failed value strategy leads to moderate contraction — specifically: McDonald's value deals continue failing to attract diners in a saturated market with evolving consumer preferences, leading to sustained sales decline in the U.S. market and market share loss to more agile competitors.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9312 · 871f57a2d7ec · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Successful Strategy Pivot Returns Growth? 35% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that successful strategy pivot returns growth — specifically: McDonald's successfully pivots to a new value proposition beyond traditional price deals, combining menu innovation, digital personalization, and experiential elements that reconnect with cost-conscious consumers.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9313 · 77542b6fd329 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-09-29: Systemic Crisis Triggers Accelerated Decline? 25% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that systemic crisis triggers accelerated decline — specifically: Macroeconomic deterioration combined with increased competitive intensity creates a perfect storm that accelerates McDonald's U.S. decline beyond management's ability to control, leading to severe market share erosion and financial distress.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9314 · 5efbb94dbac4 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-10-31: Value Strategy Fails to Restore Growth? 60% σ 0 · by 31 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-31 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that value strategy fails to restore growth — specifically: McDonald's continues to struggle with value deals failing to attract sufficient diners, leading to sustained slow growth in U.S. sales.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #11733 · 18c562d25574 · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-11-15: Menu Innovation and Digital Success? 30% σ 0 · by 15 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that menu innovation and digital success — specifically: McDonald's pivots successfully beyond value deals to menu innovation and digital engagement, restoring U.S. sales growth.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #11734 · 2e9176dd453c · open
Will the following occur in the 'McDonald’s US sales growth slows as value deals fail to draw enough diners' narrative by 2026-12-31: Structural Decline and Market Share Loss? 10% σ 0 · by 31 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that structural decline and market share loss — specifically: McDonald's experiences structural decline in the U.S. market as consumer preferences shift permanently away from traditional fast food.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #11735 · 306de1ec3b9c · open