Forecasts
58 branches · width is each branch’s share of the probability the engine assigned across them Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-08-14: Contained escalation and negotiated ceasefire? 40% σ 0 · by 14 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-14 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that contained escalation and negotiated ceasefire — specifically: Houthi attacks remain intense but calibrated, Saudi-backed forces respond with limited air raids, and UN/Oman mediation revives a fragile truce before full civil war resumes.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #234 · e00b7edfda42 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-08-18: Return to full civil war and regional proxy escalation? 35% σ 0 · by 18 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-18 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that return to full civil war and regional proxy escalation — specifically: The attacks trigger a lose-lose escalation spiral: Saudi/UAE-backed forces counterattack around Marib, Houthis launch cross-border missiles into Saudi Arabia, and the conflict links to the Iran-US confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #235 · b2509dc33c55 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-08-16: Red Sea maritime crisis triggers external naval intervention? 25% σ 0 · by 16 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-16 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that red sea maritime crisis triggers external naval intervention — specifically: Houthi strikes on Mocha expand into attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping, prompting a US-led multinational naval force to escort vessels and strike Houthi coastal launch sites, changing the military balance and internationalising the war.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #236 · d155117c81d8 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-06: Conflict Escalation Spiral? 45% σ 0 · by 06 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-06 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that conflict escalation spiral — specifically: Saudi-led coalition responds with intensified airstrikes and ground operations, triggering Houthi retaliation against Saudi civilian infrastructure, leading to full-scale war resumption across Yemen.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4634 · 8aa187d147b9 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-12-07: Localized Fighting with No Major Escalation? 35% σ 0 · by 07 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-07 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that localized fighting with no major escalation — specifically: Fighting remains concentrated around strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait area without spilling into wider conflict, both sides sustain losses but neither achieves decisive advantage.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4635 · 442a87e437ef · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-20: External-Mediated Temporary Ceasefire? 15% σ 0 · by 20 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that external-mediated temporary ceasefire — specifically: Regional/international actors pressure both sides into temporary ceasefire arrangement, though underlying tensions remain unresolved.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4636 · 0fc780cfe25f · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-20: Houthi Breakthrough and Strategic Victory? 5% σ 0 · by 20 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi breakthrough and strategic victory — specifically: Houthis capitalize on momentum, sever key government supply routes, gain control of Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and solidify territorial gains that alter military balance.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4637 · 20e352e69b8f · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Escalating Proxy Conflict? 45% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that escalating proxy conflict — specifically: Continued tit-for-tat attacks between Houthis and Saudi-backed forces lead to broader regional escalation with increased Iranian and Saudi involvement.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6339 · 99a7d8ab6315 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Stalemate and Attrition? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that stalemate and attrition — specifically: Neither side achieves decisive military advantage despite heavy fighting, leading to protracted conflict with periodic flare-ups but no territorial resolution.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6340 · 2fd35ca6542c · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Negotiated De-escalation? 15% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that negotiated de-escalation — specifically: Heavy casualties and international pressure force warring parties back to the negotiating table, leading to a fragile but sustained ceasefire.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6341 · f541ee919acd · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Houthi Territorial Breakthrough? 5% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi territorial breakthrough — specifically: Houthis achieve significant military victories, capturing key strategic areas and fundamentally shifting the balance of power in Yemen.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6342 · 9a1f5b2fc80e · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Prolonged Stalemate with Sporadic Escalation? 50% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that prolonged stalemate with sporadic escalation — specifically: The conflict continues in a stalemate, with Houthis making tactical advances in Marib/Taiz and controlling key choke points, while Saudi-backed forces conduct periodic counterattacks, resulting in a grinding war of attrition.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7723 · eb64189877a1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Houthi Strategic Breakthrough and Territorial Gains? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi strategic breakthrough and territorial gains — specifically: Houthis exploit current momentum to capture Marib oil fields and sever critical supply routes, achieving major economic and military advantages that force Saudi-backed forces into defensive positions.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7724 · 178629c1a991 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Saudi-Led Coalition Regains Initiative? 15% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that saudi-led coalition regains initiative — specifically: Enhanced US involvement and renewed Saudi military commitment enable government forces to halt Houthi advances and launch successful counteroffensives, reclaiming strategic territory and imposing costs on Iran's proxy.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7725 · 2bcd4b48a1e0 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-14: Houthis consolidate territorial control over strategic areas? 45% σ 0 · by 14 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-14 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthis consolidate territorial control over strategic areas — specifically: Houthi forces capitalize on momentum to capture key strongholds like Marib and Taiz, securing economic resources and strategic positions while the Saudi-backed government fragments.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7726 · a490497b9124 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-12-13: Protracted stalemate with continued cross-border escalation? 35% σ 0 · by 13 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that protracted stalemate with continued cross-border escalation — specifically: Neither side achieves decisive victory; conflict settles into bloody stalemate with regular Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and coalition airstrikes, causing mounting civilian casualties.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7727 · fb9a9a72d5bd · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-11-13: Saudi-backed government regains initiative with US support? 20% σ 0 · by 13 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that saudi-backed government regains initiative with us support — specifically: Increased US involvement under Trump administration enables Yemeni government forces to launch successful counteroffensives, reclaiming strategic territory and containing Houthi expansion.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7728 · 683d29fbd346 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-20: Saudi-Led Coalition Escalates and Reverses Houthi Gains? 40% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that saudi-led coalition escalates and reverses houthi gains — specifically: The deadly attacks trigger a severe escalation by the Saudi-led coalition, including intensified airstrikes and a renewed ground counteroffensive that pushes Houthis back from key areas.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7729 · dd9250e15381 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-30: Houthis Achieve Decisive Military Gains? 35% σ 0 · by 30 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthis achieve decisive military gains — specifically: The Houthis capitalize on recent attacks to make significant territorial advances, capturing Marib and/or securing Bab al-Mandeb Strait, fundamentally shifting the balance of power in Yemen.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7730 · 1887f4f931ea · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Conflict Settles into Stalemate and Protracted War? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that conflict settles into stalemate and protracted war — specifically: Both sides suffer heavy losses but neither achieves a breakthrough, leading to a prolonged stalemate with continued localized fighting and no resolution in sight.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7731 · 5035bb1865ca · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-25: Shock Attack Triggers Unexpected Ceasefire and Negotiations? 5% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that shock attack triggers unexpected ceasefire and negotiations — specifically: The scale of the losses prompts unexpected war-weariness or external pressure, leading to a sudden, fragile ceasefire and the resumption of substantive peace talks.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7732 · af7e034e74c1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-12: Regional escalation with US/Saudi retaliation? 40% σ 0 · by 12 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-12 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that regional escalation with us/saudi retaliation — specifically: Saudi-led coalition escalates with airstrikes against Houthi positions, leading to retaliatory attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure and potential US military intervention.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7733 · 36f6bd5c1304 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-12-13: Strategic stalemate with territorial consolidation? 35% σ 0 · by 13 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that strategic stalemate with territorial consolidation — specifically: Conflict settles into grinding stalemate with Houthis consolidating control of Marib/Taiz while Saudis maintain air superiority but cannot defeat rebels.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7734 · da9291f47daf · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-26: Negotiated de-escalation and ceasefire? 15% σ 0 · by 26 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-26 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that negotiated de-escalation and ceasefire — specifically: International pressure leads to renewed negotiations, temporary ceasefire, and partial Houthi withdrawals in exchange for economic/political concessions.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7735 · d145fcedd6b0 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-11-13: Yemeni government collapse and Houthi victory? 10% σ 0 · by 13 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that yemeni government collapse and houthi victory — specifically: Houthi forces achieve decisive military victory, capturing key cities and causing the internationally-recognized government to fragment or flee.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7736 · 84781e077249 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-05: Prolonged Stalemate with Periodic Escalations? 60% σ 0 · by 05 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-05 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that prolonged stalemate with periodic escalations — specifically: Conflict settles into grinding attrition warfare with no side capable of decisive victory, marked by recurring flare-ups like the current attack.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7737 · 21cb3744cce0 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-30: Regional Escalation Triggered by Houthi Success? 30% σ 0 · by 30 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that regional escalation triggered by houthi success — specifically: Houthi successful capture of Marib/Taiz triggers direct Saudi/Iranian confrontation and international intervention, escalating beyond Yemen.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7738 · dfb7da44368c · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-15: Negotiated Ceasefire Through International Pressure? 10% σ 0 · by 15 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that negotiated ceasefire through international pressure — specifically: Mounting costs and external political pressure force warring parties into UN-mediated ceasefire and political process.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7739 · 68a467a5d0d7 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-12-13: Protracted Stalemate with Regional Escalation? 45% σ 0 · by 13 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that protracted stalemate with regional escalation — specifically: Fighting remains intense but inconclusive, leading to a protracted, grinding conflict that draws in regional actors more directly and heightens risks to global shipping.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7740 · a68b0425b031 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2027-01-12: Houthi Military Advance and Expanded Control? 35% σ 0 · by 12 Jan 2027 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2027-01-12 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi military advance and expanded control — specifically: Houthi forces successfully capture key strategic objectives like Marib and/or Taiz, consolidating territorial gains and strengthening their economic and military position in Yemen.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7741 · b7066e6353fe · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-11-13: Coalition Counteroffensive & Houthi Setback? 20% σ 0 · by 13 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that coalition counteroffensive & houthi setback — specifically: Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, potentially with enhanced direct support, successfully halt the Houthi advance and retake significant territory, pushing the frontlines back towards a pre-offensive status quo.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7742 · 0e127396cc80 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-20: Continued Stalemate and Attrition? 45% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that continued stalemate and attrition — specifically: Current pattern of reciprocal attacks continues without decisive victory for either side, resulting in prolonged stalemate and continued humanitarian crisis. Houthis maintain control of northwestern Yemen while Saudi-backed forces hold parts of the south, with neither able to achieve strategic breakthroughs.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7743 · b05450bf499d · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-21: Regional Conflict Escalation? 25% σ 0 · by 21 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-21 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that regional conflict escalation — specifically: Houthi attacks on Saudi-backed forces trigger significant Saudi retaliation, potentially leading to wider regional conflict involving direct Iranian involvement and heightened US engagement. This scenario includes intensified strikes, increased naval blockades, and potential direct military confrontations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7744 · 50c68a4d2717 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Diplomatic Breakthrough and De-escalation? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that diplomatic breakthrough and de-escalation — specifically: Regional and international pressure leads to renewed diplomatic initiatives, resulting in ceasefire agreement and negotiations toward political settlement. This scenario involves direct talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran with US/Russian mediation, leading to reduced hostilities and partial Houthi withdrawal from some contested areas.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7745 · 7d427af6b490 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-25: Houthi Strategic Victory and Territorial Consolidation? 10% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi strategic victory and territorial consolidation — specifically: Houthis achieve decisive military breakthroughs, capturing key strategic locations including Marib oil fields and coastal areas, establishing de facto control over most of Yemen. This scenario involves collapse of Saudi-backed government forces and acceptance of Houthi control by international community.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7746 · ccd98fecbf17 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-21: Coalition Counteroffensive Stabilizes Frontlines? 45% σ 0 · by 21 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-21 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that coalition counteroffensive stabilizes frontlines — specifically: Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, bolstered by renewed coalition support and international pressure on Iran, halt Houthi advances and reclaim strategic territory, leading to a protracted stalemate.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7747 · e50c9e953e7d · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Houthi Momentum Continues with Strategic Gains? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi momentum continues with strategic gains — specifically: Houthi military advances persist, capturing key territories like Marib and Taiz, consolidating control over Yemen's oil sector and strategic Red Sea access points, while Saudi coalition efforts remain fragmented.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7748 · f721557b164a · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-20: Conflict Escalates into Direct Saudi-Iran Confrontation? 15% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that conflict escalates into direct saudi-iran confrontation — specifically: Persistent Houthi attacks, including deeper strikes into Saudi Arabia, trigger a significant Saudi or broader coalition military response against Iranian assets or territory, dramatically widening the regional war.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7749 · 3378dfe3fd7b · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-10: Unexpected Ceasefire and Serious Negotiations Emerge? 5% σ 0 · by 10 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that unexpected ceasefire and serious negotiations emerge — specifically: Military stalemate, escalating costs for all sides, and shifting international priorities (e.g., US election outcome) create a narrow window for a UN or Omani-brokered ceasefire and a new round of inclusive peace talks.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7750 · 738af47d3745 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-28: Stalemate and Attrition with Negotiation Fatigue? 45% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that stalemate and attrition with negotiation fatigue — specifically: The conflict settles into a violent stalemate with high casualties but no decisive territorial shifts, leading to war-weariness among all parties and eventual, fragile local ceasefire agreements that don't resolve the underlying conflict.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7751 · e4642d9ff620 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Houthi Momentum Triggers Full-Scale Regional War? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi momentum triggers full-scale regional war — specifically: Houthi military successes in Marib, Taiz, and near strategic straits trigger a massive Saudi-led retaliation and direct US/Iranian involvement, escalating into a wider regional conflict.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7752 · 69d2ee5a60d1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Government-Coalition Forces Achieve Decisive Breakthrough? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that government-coalition forces achieve decisive breakthrough — specifically: The Yemeni government, backed by intensified Saudi and potential US support, successfully repels Houthi advances, secures key territories including approaches to Sanaa, and forces the Houthis into a defensive posture, enabling renewed peace talks from a position of strength.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7753 · b0757f14db91 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-15: Persistent Stalemate with Continued Proxy Conflict? 50% σ 0 · by 15 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that persistent stalemate with continued proxy conflict — specifically: Conflict settles into a bloody stalemate where neither side achieves decisive victory, with frontlines solidifying and continued external support fueling a prolonged, low-intensity proxy war.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7757 · 56f71a18e257 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-30: Houthi Offensive Escalates, Seizes Strategic Territories? 35% σ 0 · by 30 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-30 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi offensive escalates, seizes strategic territories — specifically: Houthi forces intensify their offensive and successfully capture key strategic territories like Marib (oil sector) and Taiz (critical location), securing economic gains and strengthening their position.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7758 · 38bd98565e3e · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-20: Saudi-Led Coalition Regains Initiative and Pushes Back? 15% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that saudi-led coalition regains initiative and pushes back — specifically: Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, with enhanced coalition support, launch a successful counteroffensive, reversing Houthi gains and threatening their core territories.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7759 · 7c1ea4a8a60c · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-28: Houthi Counteroffensive Gains Ground? 45% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi counteroffensive gains ground — specifically: Iran-backed Houthis escalate attacks and make significant territorial gains against Saudi-backed forces, capturing strategic locations like Marib and Taiz.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7760 · c045248b7413 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-28: Saudi-Led Coalition Escalates? 35% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that saudi-led coalition escalates — specifically: Saudi Arabia and coalition partners respond with increased military force, including stronger air campaigns and direct ground interventions in Yemen.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7761 · d3d7e9aa10fb · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-09-28: Stalemate and Fragmentation? 20% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that stalemate and fragmentation — specifically: Conflict reaches equilibrium with neither side able to achieve decisive victory, resulting in Yemen's fragmentation into zones of control with ongoing low-intensity conflict.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7762 · a90530d26776 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-14: Escalation to Full-Scale War? 45% σ 0 · by 14 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-14 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that escalation to full-scale war — specifically: Both Houthis and Saudi-backed government forces escalate offensives, triggering a return to high-intensity combat across multiple fronts, including Marib, Taiz, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, with continued Iranian and Saudi involvement.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7763 · 7c0a1b42b255 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-12-13: Protracted Stalemate with Localized Fighting? 35% σ 0 · by 13 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that protracted stalemate with localized fighting — specifically: Conflict settles into a grinding stalemate where neither side can achieve decisive victory. Fighting remains intense but localized to frontlines like Taiz and Marib, with periodic flare-ups but no major territorial shifts.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7764 · cb2441276181 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-11-13: Covert Diplomacy Leads to Temporary De-escalation? 15% σ 0 · by 13 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that covert diplomacy leads to temporary de-escalation — specifically: Behind-the-scenes pressure from major powers (US, regional actors) leads to a temporary, unstable reduction in hostilities. This could involve informal truces around specific cities or a halt to cross-border attacks, but underlying tensions remain unresolved.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7765 · 106171150c74 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-11-13: Houthi Strategic Breakthrough and Political Consolidation? 5% σ 0 · by 13 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi strategic breakthrough and political consolidation — specifically: Houthis achieve a major military breakthrough, such as capturing Marib city or severing key government supply lines, shifting the balance of power decisively in their favor and strengthening their claim to be Yemen's legitimate government.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7766 · 4aa22e70b12c · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Stabilized Frontlines & Renewed Stalemate? 50% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that stabilized frontlines & renewed stalemate — specifically: Neither side achieves decisive military breakthrough; frontlines stabilize around current positions, leading to a frozen conflict with intermittent skirmishes but no major territorial changes.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7776 · 0314c27000b0 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Houthi Territorial Gains & Regional Escalation? 30% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi territorial gains & regional escalation — specifically: Houthi forces capitalize on momentum to capture key strategic territories (Marib oil fields, Taiz, Bab al-Mandeb), prompting a severe Saudi-led military response and drawing in increased regional actors.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7777 · 6e65f12c20cb · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Saudi-Coalition Counteroffensive Reverses Houthi Gains? 20% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that saudi-coalition counteroffensive reverses houthi gains — specifically: Bolstered by decisive Western support and reorganised Yemeni forces, the Saudi-led coalition launches a successful counter-offensive, pushing Houthis back from recently captured territory and weakening their military position.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7778 · 8a7766b4c851 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Regional Escalation and Prolonged Conflict? 50% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that regional escalation and prolonged conflict — specifically: Saudi Arabia and its allies respond forcefully to Houthi attacks with increased military intervention, drawing in regional players like France and escalating into a prolonged regional conflict.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #10744 · e8c4339c2528 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-10: Frozen Conflict and Negotiation Stalemate? 35% σ 0 · by 10 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that frozen conflict and negotiation stalemate — specifically: Both sides continue limited military engagements but neither achieves decisive advantage, leading to a frozen conflict with sporadic fighting and failed diplomatic initiatives.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #10745 · 8d6a2c57e8d4 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Houthis launch deadly attacks on Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemen' narrative by 2026-10-01: Houthi Consolidation and Territorial Gains? 15% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that houthi consolidation and territorial gains — specifically: Houthis continue successful offensive operations, gaining control of key territories including Marib's oil resources, strengthening their position and eventually forcing Saudi withdrawal.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #10746 · 0bf69238681c · open