Forecasts
35 branches · width is each branch’s share of the probability the engine assigned across them Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-08-15: FIFA confirms scrapping and returns to orthodox rights sales? 45% σ 0 · by 15 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa confirms scrapping and returns to orthodox rights sales — specifically: FIFA formally walks away from the $20B structured financing idea and reverts to conventional sponsorship and broadcast deals for World Cup cycles. The story becomes an organizational decision rather than a live market event.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #866 · 0c3ada6c9f59 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-08-20: FIFA pivots to a restructured alternative financing vehicle? 30% σ 0 · by 20 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa pivots to a restructured alternative financing vehicle — specifically: FIFA scraps the specific $20B structure but immediately explores smaller or differently governed ways to monetize World Cup assets. A replacement deal softens the financial shock and keeps investor interest alive.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #867 · 9fa2167b5c92 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-08-18: NY Post report is premature; the plan quietly continues? 25% σ 0 · by 18 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-18 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that ny post report is premature; the plan quietly continues — specifically: FIFA does not officially confirm a permanent scrapping, and the $20B sell-off is quietly revived in modified form. The initial report becomes a momentary headline rather than a decisive turning point.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #868 · d319f22c9b5b · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-15: Sale Plan Abandoned Permanently? 70% σ 0 · by 15 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that sale plan abandoned permanently — specifically: FIFA definitively rejects the $20 billion World Cup sell-off proposal due to internal opposition, ethical concerns, or insufficient interest from investors, keeping the tournament fully under FIFA control.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4933 · faf35c3d9c66 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-11-15: Plan Revised and Resurrected? 25% σ 0 · by 15 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that plan revised and resurrected — specifically: FIFA temporarily shelves the $20 billion plan to redesign it with different terms, fewer partners, or a different structure, ultimately implementing a modified version within 12-18 months.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4934 · f21f96420838 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-12: Inaccurate Reporting - Plan Proceeds? 5% σ 0 · by 12 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-12 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that inaccurate reporting - plan proceeds — specifically: The New York Post report proves inaccurate; the $20 billion sell-off plan continues in negotiations, possibly with modifications, driven by FIFA's need for revenue and investor interest.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4935 · 75eeea3f0124 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-29: FIFA permanently abandons $20 billion World Cup commercialization plan? 70% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa permanently abandons $20 billion world cup commercialization plan — specifically: FIFA definitively cancels the controversial $20 billion sell-off plan after facing internal resistance and market uncertainty, maintaining traditional World Cup operations.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8464 · 8442aab673de · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-29: Plan returns in restructured, scaled-down form? 30% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that plan returns in restructured, scaled-down form — specifically: FIFA temporarily shelves the $20 billion plan but returns with a modified, smaller-scale version after market conditions improve and internal consensus is built.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8465 · 57f5c4a3c7fb · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-29: FIFA abandons $20B World Cup sell-off? 65% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa abandons $20b world cup sell-off — specifically: FIFA cancels the $20 billion plan without replacement, maintaining full control over World Cup assets and revenue streams.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8466 · 80c3e1ec2dfa · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-10-01: Scaled-back partial asset sale emerges? 25% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that scaled-back partial asset sale emerges — specifically: FIFA implements a more modest, structured sale of specific World Cup assets rather than the full $20B package.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8467 · b87d61103104 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-12-01: $20B plan revived under new structure? 10% σ 0 · by 01 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that $20b plan revived under new structure — specifically: The $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan is resurrected with significant modifications and new partners after initial cancellation.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8468 · d48c27b49b2c · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-29: World Cup Sell-Off Officially Scrapped? 70% σ 0 · by 29 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-29 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that world cup sell-off officially scrapped — specifically: FIFA confirms it has permanently abandoned the $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, maintaining its traditional tournament structure and ownership model.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8469 · 3c9fc1904ad9 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-10-15: Sell-Off Plan Temporarily Shelved? 20% σ 0 · by 15 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that sell-off plan temporarily shelved — specifically: FIFA pauses the $20 billion World Cup sell-off initiative due to market conditions or negotiation timing, planning to revisit it in future.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8470 · 8e30f6bb55c4 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-12-14: Alternative Commercialization Model Emerges? 10% σ 0 · by 14 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-14 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that alternative commercialization model emerges — specifically: FIFA scraps the specific $20 billion sell-off but introduces a revised, scaled-back commercialization approach for World Cup assets.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8471 · 08ca98dbdec9 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-12-14: FIFA reverts to traditional funding model? 65% σ 0 · by 14 Dec 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-14 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa reverts to traditional funding model — specifically: FIFA abandons the $20 billion commercialization plan entirely and returns to conventional sponsorship and broadcasting revenue streams for World Cup operations.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9142 · 87571c615f1c · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2027-03-14: Revised, smaller-scale commercialization? 25% σ 0 · by 14 Mar 2027 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2027-03-14 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that revised, smaller-scale commercialization — specifically: FIFA scales back but doesn't entirely abandon the plan, opting for a smaller, phased approach to partial World Cup asset sales.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9143 · e70f765282f5 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2027-09-10: Temporary pause, not cancellation? 10% σ 0 · by 10 Sep 2027 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2027-09-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that temporary pause, not cancellation — specifically: The $20 billion plan is shelved temporarily due to unfavorable market conditions, with intent to revive it when markets stabilize.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9144 · 2d79da844b9c · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-10-01: FIFA abandons commercialization plan, maintains control? 65% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa abandons commercialization plan, maintains control — specifically: FIFA confirms it has abandoned the $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, opting to retain full ownership and control of its premier event amid concerns about commercialization and governance.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9145 · d50cb17e6090 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-10-16: Plan temporarily shelved for restructuring? 25% σ 0 · by 16 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-16 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that plan temporarily shelved for restructuring — specifically: FIFA pauses the $20 billion plan temporarily while restructuring the proposal to address stakeholder concerns, with a modified version likely to emerge within 12-18 months.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9146 · 5454c80fe099 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-11-01: Plan proceeds through alternative channels? 10% σ 0 · by 01 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that plan proceeds through alternative channels — specifically: The $20 billion plan continues through different mechanisms or partners, with FIFA using alternative structures to achieve similar financial objectives while avoiding public backlash.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9147 · 1d2624cebc93 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-10-15: FIFA Abandons Sell-Off Plan, Maintains Full Control? 65% σ 0 · by 15 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa abandons sell-off plan, maintains full control — specifically: The $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan is permanently scrapped due to insufficient investor interest, regulatory hurdles, or internal FIFA opposition, preserving FIFA's complete control over tournament rights.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9148 · 088e1b45c902 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2027-03-15: Sell-Off Plan Paused for Redesign and Relaunch? 25% σ 0 · by 15 Mar 2027 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2027-03-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that sell-off plan paused for redesign and relaunch — specifically: The current $20 billion framework is scrapped but replaced with a scaled-down or restructured commercialization plan within 12-18 months targeting different asset bundles.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9149 · 723286f7f96f · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-11-15: Strategic Leak to Test Market Reaction? 10% σ 0 · by 15 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that strategic leak to test market reaction — specifically: The 'scrapped' report serves as strategic leak to gauge investor interest and market pricing before officially launching a revised version of the commercialization plan.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9150 · 6a9822fc6f21 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-16: FIFA abandons commercialization plan? 60% σ 0 · by 16 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-16 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa abandons commercialization plan — specifically: FIFA permanently shelves the $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan due to stakeholder resistance and reasserts traditional tournament governance.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9151 · 43a964c304a5 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-20: Plan revised and scaled down? 35% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that plan revised and scaled down — specifically: FIFA revises the $20 billion plan to a smaller, more targeted asset sale focusing on specific tournament elements rather than the entire World Cup.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9152 · 8a2049818ea3 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-18: Plan delayed but not scrapped? 5% σ 0 · by 18 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-18 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that plan delayed but not scrapped — specifically: The $20 billion sell-off plan is temporarily shelved due to unfavorable market conditions but will be revived when economic indicators improve.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9153 · 260a2702502b · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-16: FIFA Abandons $20B World Cup Sell-Off? 60% σ 0 · by 16 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-16 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa abandons $20b world cup sell-off — specifically: FIFA permanently abandons the $20 billion World Cup monetization plan in response to negative stakeholder feedback and financial market skepticism, opting for traditional tournament financing.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9275 · bdd3f7d77091 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-20: Revised Smaller Sale Structure Emerges? 30% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that revised smaller sale structure emerges — specifically: FIFA reworks the monetization plan into a smaller, targeted sale of specific World Cup assets or sponsorship packages rather than the full $20 billion package.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9276 · 91e2744e1216 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-18: Temporary Suspension Before Relaunch? 10% σ 0 · by 18 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-18 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that temporary suspension before relaunch — specifically: The $20 billion plan is temporarily paused due to unfavorable market conditions but will be relaunched when financial markets improve and investor appetite returns.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9277 · 31c751fca164 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-09-20: FIFA Abandons Commercialization Plan Entirely? 45% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa abandons commercialization plan entirely — specifically: FIFA definitively cancels the $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan and returns to traditional revenue models with internal funding and sponsorship structures.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9281 · 6208b0a4b2c5 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-10-01: Revised Sell-off Plan Emerges after Rework? 35% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that revised sell-off plan emerges after rework — specifically: FIFA temporarily shelves the original plan but works behind the scenes to develop a scaled-down, more palatable version of World Cup commercialization.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9282 · 0cb260b0ef34 · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-10-10: External Market Forces Revive Original Plan? 20% σ 0 · by 10 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that external market forces revive original plan — specifically: Unrelated positive market developments create favorable conditions for mega-deals, leading FIFA to reverse course and pursue the original $20 billion sell-off.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9283 · 0e1c4c18db8a · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-10-01: FIFA Maintains Traditional Governance Model? 65% σ 0 · by 01 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fifa maintains traditional governance model — specifically: FIFA permanently abandons the commercialization plan and reaffirms its traditional governance structure, maintaining direct control over World Cup rights and revenue.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9284 · d759c0e2a7ba · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-10-15: Temporary Pause Before Revised Commercialization? 25% σ 0 · by 15 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that temporary pause before revised commercialization — specifically: Current plan is scrapped but FIFA secretly works on a restructured, more palatable commercialization model to be unveiled after opposition subsides.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9285 · 472bbd4515df · open
Will the following occur in the 'FIFA has scrapped $20 billion World Cup sell-off plan, New York Post reports' narrative by 2026-11-01: Fragmented Regional Rights Sales Emerge? 10% σ 0 · by 01 Nov 2026 · 204 agents
0% 50% 100%
204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-11-01 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that fragmented regional rights sales emerge — specifically: FIFA abandons unified $20B plan but begins piecemeal sale of regional World Cup rights packages, leading to fragmented commercialization.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9286 · d32d1b8fe6aa · open