Forecasts
34 branches · width is each branch’s share of the probability the engine assigned across them Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-08-21: Precautionary halt contained; minimal lasting market impact? 30% σ 0 · by 21 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-21 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that precautionary halt contained; minimal lasting market impact — specifically: Sysco's decision to stop buying Mexican iceberg lettuce is validated as a cautious response while the outbreak remains small and traceback does not conclusively tie Sysco's supply chain to cases. Lettuce prices see a temporary blip but normalize within weeks.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #1069 · 558f77bb245e · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-08-19: Mexican iceberg lettuce confirmed as source; produce supply shock? 30% σ 0 · by 19 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-19 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that mexican iceberg lettuce confirmed as source; produce supply shock — specifically: CDC traceback confirms Mexican iceberg lettuce as the cyclosporiasis vehicle, triggering broader import restrictions and a sharp spike in lettuce prices. Sysco, competitors, and foodservice operators scramble for alternative supply.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #1070 · 1a422d90a52c · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-08-25: Cyclosporiasis outbreak escalates into national recall? 25% σ 0 · by 25 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that cyclosporiasis outbreak escalates into national recall — specifically: Illness counts rise sharply with hospitalizations, forcing multiple packaged-salad and lettuce recalls beyond Sysco's halted purchases. The story becomes a major public-health and food-safety crisis with severe market and legal consequences.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #1071 · 38fab34a5580 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-08-20: Traceback clears Mexican lettuce; Sysco resumes sourcing? 15% σ 0 · by 20 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that traceback clears mexican lettuce; sysco resumes sourcing — specifically: Investigation determines Mexican iceberg lettuce was not the outbreak source, allowing Sysco to resume purchases within weeks. The market impact is negligible beyond short-lived noise.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #1072 · ee2e81feac2e · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-08-20: Contained precautionary halt, limited market fallout? 40% σ 0 · by 20 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that contained precautionary halt, limited market fallout — specifically: The cyclosporiasis investigation does not confirm Mexican iceberg lettuce as the source, Sysco quietly resumes purchases, and the story fades from market attention.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #1076 · 018ffe88f2e6 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-08-18: Confirmed link to Mexican lettuce triggers recall and severe market shock? 35% σ 0 · by 18 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-18 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that confirmed link to mexican lettuce triggers recall and severe market shock — specifically: The outbreak is definitively traced to Mexican iceberg lettuce, forcing Sysco and regulators to issue broad recalls, spiking US lettuce prices, and deeply hurting Mexican growers.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #1077 · 4a663910eb1d · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-08-19: Regulatory and trade escalation despite inconclusive evidence? 25% σ 0 · by 19 Aug 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-19 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that regulatory and trade escalation despite inconclusive evidence — specifically: Even without a definitive scientific link, political and food-safety pressure leads to import restrictions on Mexican lettuce, triggering a prolonged trade dispute and reshaped supply chains.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #1078 · a82129f41015 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-10: Sysco Reacts Alone, Minimal Market Impact? 65% σ 0 · by 10 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that sysco reacts alone, minimal market impact — specifically: Sysco isolates its supply chain from Mexico temporarily due to cyclosporiasis concerns, causing minor localized disruption to Mexican lettuce producers but no broader market contagion.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4447 · 6cc61e011698 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-15: Contagion to Other Distributors & Broader Trade Impact? 25% σ 0 · by 15 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that contagion to other distributors & broader trade impact — specifically: Other major US foodservice distributors follow Sysco's lead, causing a cumulative export shock to Mexico's agricultural sector and triggering noticeable market anxiety in Mexican equities.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4448 · 167991492472 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-20: Political Escalation and Retaliatory Trade Measures? 8% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that political escalation and retaliatory trade measures — specifically: Mexico perceives the move as unjustified trade discrimination, leading to diplomatic complaints or retaliatory measures on US agricultural exports, affecting broader bilateral trade sentiment and financial markets.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4449 · 807d6c35c5b2 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-08: No Actual Supply Stop? 60% σ 0 · by 08 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-08 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that no actual supply stop — specifically: The report proves inaccurate or exaggerated - Sysco reduces but doesn't fully stop Mexican lettuce imports, causing minimal market disruption.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4550 · 3022578e635d · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-08: Temporary Stop with Minor Market Impact? 30% σ 0 · by 08 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-08 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that temporary stop with minor market impact — specifically: Sysco temporarily halts Mexican lettuce for food safety review, causing short-term volatility but no systemic market impact.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4551 · 4a3f5ad86c53 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-09: Extended Ban with Broader Agricultural Impact? 10% σ 0 · by 09 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-09 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that extended ban with broader agricultural impact — specifically: Cyclosporiasis outbreak traced definitively to Mexican lettuce, triggering extended import restrictions and agricultural market volatility.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4552 · 9e799e7e66b0 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-25: Isolated Incident, Minimal Market Impact? 70% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that isolated incident, minimal market impact — specifically: Sysco's lettuce suspension remains a brief, isolated procurement decision with no broader market disruptions, quickly resolved as outbreak concerns fade.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4956 · e4b64b2d20ff · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-20: Cascading Trade Restrictions & Market Stress? 25% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that cascading trade restrictions & market stress — specifically: Sysco's decision triggers wider US importer suspensions, causing significant disruption to Mexican agricultural exports and localized market stress.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4957 · 35ad2a0d1d33 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-28: Full-Blown Trade Crisis & Regulatory Shift? 5% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that full-blown trade crisis & regulatory shift — specifically: Outbreak escalates, triggering a US regulatory ban on Mexican lettuce imports, causing severe agricultural market disruption and broader US-Mexico trade tensions.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #4958 · ebc64dc5d0db · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-15: Temporary Supplier Shift? 40% σ 0 · by 15 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that temporary supplier shift — specifically: Sysco temporarily halts purchases from affected Mexican farms while maintaining existing contracts with unaffected suppliers, leading to minimal market disruption.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6517 · 56fc5b1f5a50 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-20: Extended Supply Chain Disruption? 35% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that extended supply chain disruption — specifically: US cyclosporiasis outbreak is linked to broader contamination in Mexican agricultural exports, triggering extended import restrictions and supply chain reconfiguration.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6518 · 962ac04ace1a · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-18: Regulatory and Trade Tension Escalation? 25% σ 0 · by 18 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-18 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that regulatory and trade tension escalation — specifically: Cyclosporiasis outbreak triggers regulatory responses that escalate into trade policy disputes between US and Mexico, affecting broader agricultural trade.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #6519 · 07c182a00edb · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-28: Isolated Containment? 70% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that isolated containment — specifically: Sysco's lettuce embargo is brief and targeted, the cyclosporiasis outbreak is quickly contained to specific Mexican suppliers, and normal trade resumes within weeks with minimal market disruption.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7235 · e3a99c69b256 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-28: Cascading Trade Disruption? 25% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that cascading trade disruption — specifically: Multiple US distributors follow Sysco's lead, triggering wider trade restrictions on Mexican lettuce, causing supply shortages, price spikes, and diplomatic trade tensions.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7236 · 2079593f0a9d · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-28: Systemic Food Safety Crisis? 5% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that systemic food safety crisis — specifically: The outbreak proves widespread across multiple Mexican states and product categories, triggering a massive recall cascade, FDA import alerts, and permanent supply chain realignment away from Mexico.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7237 · 79faf335aec6 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-21: Temporary Lettuce Ban Contains Outbreak? 60% σ 0 · by 21 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-21 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that temporary lettuce ban contains outbreak — specifically: Sysco's temporary ban on Mexican lettuce successfully contains the cyclosporiasis outbreak without major supply chain disruption, with Mexico implementing immediate safety measures.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7238 · 51e547732104 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-21: Outbreak Spreads, Triggering Wider Bans? 30% σ 0 · by 21 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-21 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that outbreak spreads, triggering wider bans — specifically: The cyclosporiasis outbreak proves more widespread than initially believed, leading to broader import bans and significant disruption to US-Mexico agricultural trade.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7239 · 68271383fe17 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-21: Misattribution with Minimal Long-term Impact? 10% σ 0 · by 21 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-21 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that misattribution with minimal long-term impact — specifically: Initial outbreak attribution to Mexican lettuce proves inaccurate, with source later identified as domestic or other origin, leading to quick resolution and minimal market impact.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7240 · 4dab2bea7b6b · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-28: Localized Sysco Response? 65% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that localized sysco response — specifically: Sysco's action remains an isolated corporate food safety measure with minimal market impact beyond temporary lettuce supply chain adjustments.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7241 · a34ad0448ef1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-28: Wider Market Contagion? 25% σ 0 · by 28 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-28 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that wider market contagion — specifically: Sysco's action triggers broader US import restrictions and market uncertainty affecting Mexican agricultural exports and cross-border trade sentiment.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7242 · 592abf5840ff · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-10-12: Regulatory Cascade? 10% σ 0 · by 12 Oct 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-10-12 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that regulatory cascade — specifically: FDA and USDA implement stricter import controls, creating sustained trade barriers and triggering retaliatory measures from Mexico affecting broader economic relations.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #7243 · 155c93588564 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-15: Temporary Containment and Quick Resolution? 60% σ 0 · by 15 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that temporary containment and quick resolution — specifically: Sysco implements a temporary, targeted suspension of Mexican lettuce purchases while health authorities investigate and contain the cyclosporiasis outbreak, with minimal market disruption.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8282 · 867655f0739a · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-15: Cascading Trade Disruption and Diplomatic Friction? 30% σ 0 · by 15 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that cascading trade disruption and diplomatic friction — specifically: The suspension escalates into a broader trade dispute, with other distributors following Sysco's lead and Mexico retaliating with inspections or tariffs on US goods.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8283 · 8645d78d8220 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-15: Permanent Supply Chain Shift and Localization? 10% σ 0 · by 15 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-15 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that permanent supply chain shift and localization — specifically: The outbreak triggers a lasting strategic shift by Sysco and competitors toward local/controlled-environment agriculture (CEA), reducing reliance on imported fresh produce.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #8284 · a77e03bbeb08 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-25: Limited Short-Term Disruption? 60% σ 0 · by 25 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-25 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that limited short-term disruption — specifically: Sysco's ban on Mexican iceberg lettuce is a temporary, precautionary measure in response to a specific outbreak, causing limited market and supply chain disruption that resolves within weeks as the outbreak is contained and alternative sourcing is arranged.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9154 · feb90f87f8e1 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-22: Contagion and Trade Policy Shift? 35% σ 0 · by 22 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-22 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that contagion and trade policy shift — specifically: Sysco's ban triggers a cascade of similar actions from other US distributors and food service companies, prompting a broader FDA/CDC advisory, which escalates into a temporary US-Mexico trade dispute on fresh produce safety standards, impacting agricultural stocks and trade relations.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9155 · cf7cd30bb263 · open
Will the following occur in the 'Exclusive-Sysco has stopped buying iceberg lettuce from Mexico amid US cyclosporiasis outbreak, CEO says' narrative by 2026-09-20: Competitive/Strategic Advantage Play? 5% σ 0 · by 20 Sep 2026 · 204 agents
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204 agents · spread modelled from σ 0, not a histogram of individual estimates Resolves YES if, by 2026-09-20 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that competitive/strategic advantage play — specifically: Sysco's announcement is partially a market signal or strategic move to gain leverage with Mexican suppliers, secure alternative domestic/US sources, or position itself as a safety leader, with the health outbreak providing convenient cover. The 'crisis' is managed to create a net operational benefit for Sysco.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #9156 · 5241a07893be · open